The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book 'Squirrel Power,' by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in 'Squirrel Power' will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."
Analysis of the Argument:
The memo by the chief executive seeks to justify a speculative decision to buy the rights to produce a game on an unpublished book. He is highly optimistic of the outcome of the deal and presents rationale to support the same. The argument is reasonable, but suffers from a few drawbacks, especially considering the speculations involved.
The rights will enable the company to make a video game based on the unpublished book, whose popularity has been estimated by the fame received by the same author's last three books, and a movie based on his first one. The reasoning is slightly misleading, since there is no mention of whether the last three books were also children's books. Moreover, there is no evidence to indicate that a video game in the same genre will be (or has been) as popular as the book.
The cost of the deal is another concern. The argument claims it to "cause economical constraints... in the short term". There is no indication of what might be the severity of the situation.The salaries of the developers, for example, might get affected. An indication should have been provided, perhaps in terms of the after-effects on the video game development process, and whether that would be justified.
It is said that the already popular characters of the book will help save time in the game development. No mention again, of the amount of the savings incurred has been provided. How important and lengthy is the character development phase for a normal video game, is unknown. This is also the only reduction in costs the chief expects to gain. Compared with the cost of the deal, this may not completely compensate.
In conclusion, it can be seen that the argument is incomplete, and although resonable, it is largely subliminal. Mostly due to the lack of enough information and thorough estimation, the terms do not make it an "undoubtedly wise" decision. Maybe it is, but the argument does little justice to it.
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